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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.26 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model