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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to TEN 4, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey. PENALTY on TEN-41-B.Trawick, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at TEN 4.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP