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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 18% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 82% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model