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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.34 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model