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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

LA
49.9%
MIN
50.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 23
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

LA

Malcolm Brown RB Out Knee
Troy Hill CB Questionable Hamstring
Derek Carrier TE Questionable Hamstring

MIN

Mike Remmers T Out Concussion
Andrew Sendejo S Out Groin
Brian Robison DE Questionable Back
Everson Griffen DE Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 7
–
MIN 24

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:48 TD LA (10:48) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 13:36 TD MIN (13:36) 25-L.Murray left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – MIN 6
  • Q4 14:22 TD MIN (14:22) 25-L.Murray up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LA 7 – MIN 13
  • Q4 10:24 TD MIN (10:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – MIN 20
  • Q4 02:27 FG MIN (2:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. LA 7 – MIN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 45%

    (6:28) 30-C.Ham up the middle to LA 42 for 2 yards (52-A.Ogletree).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 19 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to LA 44, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-M.Sherels to LA 35 for 9 yards (50-S.Ebukam). PENALTY on LA-10-P.Cooper, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LA 35. Minnesota challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 01:40.)

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 36%

    (10:49) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to MIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 78%

    (7:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:19) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to LA 15, Center-47-K.McDermott. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 28 for 13 yards (35-M.Sherels). PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 28.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:54) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to LA 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 10-P.Cooper to LA 26 for -1 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:46) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to MIN 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (6:20) 2-K.Forbath 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to MIN 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 33%

    (12:45) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to MIN 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-83-J.Reynolds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:25) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to MIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (2:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at MIN 21 for -7 yards (90-T.Bower).