Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 99

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to LA 44, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-M.Sherels to LA 35 for 9 yards (50-S.Ebukam). PENALTY on LA-10-P.Cooper, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LA 35. Minnesota challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 01:40.)

The Three Options

GO -4.54 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.31 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 99, worth -6.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model