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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(7:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model