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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(2:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +0.97 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model