Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to LA 15, Center-47-K.McDermott. 10-P.Cooper pushed ob at LA 28 for 13 yards (35-M.Sherels). PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.73 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -2.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model