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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 22

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 2-K.Forbath 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model