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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 1 at the 44
Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7
What Actually Happened
(6:28) 30-C.Ham up the middle to LA 42 for 2 yards (52-A.Ogletree).
The Three Options
GO
+1.57 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.30 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -1.89 EP
KICK
-0.19 EP
- 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
- 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT
+0.22 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
