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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2017-11-05 · 16:05 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

WAS
38.4%
SEA
61.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

WAS

Matt Ioannidis DE Out Hand
Shawn Lauvao G Out Stinger
Niles Paul TE Out Concussion
Jordan Reed TE Out Hamstring
Spencer Long C Doubtful Knee
Ty Nsekhe T Doubtful Core Muscle
Trent Williams T Doubtful Knee
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Hamstring
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Knee
Rob Kelley RB Questionable Ankle
Montae Nicholson S Questionable Shoulder
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Knee
Martrell Spaight LB Questionable Shoulder

SEA

Luke Joeckel G Out Knee
Earl Thomas S Out Hamstring
Jeremy Lane CB Questionable Thigh
Sheldon Richardson DT Questionable Oblique
Kam Chancellor S Questionable Ankle
C.J. Prosise RB Questionable Ankle
Bobby Wagner LB Questionable Hamstring
Tanner McEvoy WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 17
–
SEA 14

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:52 SAF SEA (6:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked in End Zone for -6 yards, SAFETY (54-B.Wagner). WAS 0 – SEA 2
  • Q2 02:55 TD WAS (2:55) 66-T.Bergstrom and 52-R.Anderson reported in as eligible. 20-R.Kelley left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – SEA 2
  • Q3 10:22 FG WAS (10:22) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – SEA 2
  • Q4 11:53 TD SEA (11:53) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 82-L.Willson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – SEA 8
  • Q4 01:40 TD SEA (1:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – SEA 14
  • Q4 01:02 TD WAS (1:02) 66-T.Bergstrom and 52-R.Anderson reported in as eligible. 20-R.Kelley left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – SEA 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:15) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to SEA 33, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-50-M.Spaight. Punt tipped by SS #23.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:14) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to WAS 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 23-D.Hall to WAS 23 for no gain (23-N.Thorpe).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 50%

    (7:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 33 yards to WAS 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-82-L.Willson.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%

    (3:50) 7-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:50) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to SEA 29, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 17 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 88%

    (9:42) 7-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:30) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to WAS 29, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:56) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 33 for 13 yards (51-W.Compton).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:36) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to WAS 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 23-D.Hall pushed ob at WAS 33 for 7 yards (28-J.Coleman).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (10:22) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 19%

    (5:12) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to SEA 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:55) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to SEA 44, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 44 for no gain (55-C.Carter; 50-M.Spaight). WAS-50-M.Spaight was injured during the play. PENALTY on SEA-57-M.Wilhoite, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 44.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:55) 9-J.Ryan punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 13 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 23%

    (2:31) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to SEA 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 29 for 8 yards (22-D.Everett).