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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 72

Washington Commanders 7 – Seattle Seahawks 2

What Actually Happened

(:56) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to SEA 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 33 for 13 yards (51-W.Compton).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model