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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to WAS 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 23-D.Hall to WAS 23 for no gain (23-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model