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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 65

Washington Commanders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to SEA 33, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-50-M.Spaight. Punt tipped by SS #23.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model