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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 2 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to WAS 29, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP