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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 10

Washington Commanders 7 – Seattle Seahawks 2

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model