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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 50

Washington Commanders 10 – Seattle Seahawks 8

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 5-T.Way punts 29 yards to SEA 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 29 for 8 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.65 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model