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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2017-11-05 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

KC
53.0%
DAL
47.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Alex Smith (KC): +0.179 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

KC 25
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

KC

Dee Ford LB Out Back
Albert Wilson WR Out Hamstring
Justin Houston LB Questionable Knee

DAL

Chidobe Awuzie CB Out Hamstring
Dan Bailey K Out right Groin
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Foot
Cole Beasley WR Questionable Concussion
Noah Brown WR Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 17
–
DAL 28

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:42 TD DAL (2:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 07:24 FG KC (7:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – DAL 7
  • Q2 00:21 TD DAL (:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 3 – DAL 13
  • Q2 00:02 TD KC (:02) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 9 – DAL 14
  • Q3 09:11 TD KC (9:11) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – DAL 14
  • Q3 03:33 TD DAL (3:33) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 17 – DAL 20
  • Q4 09:02 TD DAL (9:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 17 – DAL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 38%

    (11:52) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to KC 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:13) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to DAL 37, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:48) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to KC 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-D.Thomas to KC 13 for no gain (35-K.Frazier).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:44) (Pass formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to DAL 38, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 39 for 1 yard (30-S.Terrell).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 51%

    (14:04) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:35) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to KC 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (7:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 38%

    (3:27) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 29 yards to KC 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:52) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to DAL 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to DAL 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 36 for 9 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis). PENALTY on DAL-25-X.Woods, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at DAL 26.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 48%

    (5:12) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 38-J.Heath at DAL 36. 38-J.Heath to DAL 39 for 3 yards (61-M.Morse).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 48%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to KC 2, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 10-T.Hill to KC 2 for no gain (84-J.Hanna).