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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(7:24) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model