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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to DAL 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.31 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model