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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 85

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:44) (Pass formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to DAL 38, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 39 for 1 yard (30-S.Terrell).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.14 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 85, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model