Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to DAL 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 36 for 9 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis). PENALTY on DAL-25-X.Woods, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at DAL 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model