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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(14:04) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.33 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model