Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 63

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(8:48) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to KC 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 13-D.Thomas to KC 13 for no gain (35-K.Frazier).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.77 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model