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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2017-10-29 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CAR
36.1%
TB
63.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.113 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.061 EPA/dropback
  • CAR defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 19
–
TB 22
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CAR

Ryan Kalil C Out Neck
John Theus T Out Concussion
Fozzy Whittaker RB Out Ankle
Alex Armah RB Questionable Hamstring
Graham Gano K Questionable right Knee
Kurt Coleman S Questionable Knee
Ed Dickson TE Questionable Ankle
Luke Kuechly LB Questionable Concussion

TB

Brent Grimes CB Out Shoulder
Robert McClain CB Out Concussion
Josh Robinson S Out Concussion
Chris Baker DT Questionable Ankle
Ryan Russell DE Questionable Shoulder
Jameis Winston QB Questionable right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 17
–
TB 3

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:37 TD CAR (1:37) 65-A.Silatolu reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TB 0
  • Q2 00:20 FG CAR (:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – TB 0
  • Q3 04:53 FG TB (4:53) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. CAR 10 – TB 3
  • Q4 08:56 TD CAR (8:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 13-K.Benjamin for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – TB 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to CAR 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-K.Clay to CAR 32 for 11 yards (37-K.Tandy).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:28) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-52-J.Norris.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:24) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to CAR 17, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-K.Clay to CAR 18 for 1 yard (52-C.Lynch).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 40%

    (11:51) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to CAR 2, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-12-C.Godwin.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:30) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to TB 38, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-B.Reedy to CAR 45 for 17 yards (57-A.Gachkar). Penalty on TB-25-P.Barber, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on TB-12-C.Godwin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 39.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:03) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:40) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to CAR 39, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-K.Clay to CAR 49 for 10 yards (59-D.Bond).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 14 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 45%

    (10:01) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 33 yards to CAR 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:28) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to TB 34, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-B.Reedy to TB 46 for 12 yards (19-R.Shepard, 53-B.Jacobs).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (4:53) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:58) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to TB 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:23) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CAR 44, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 20%

    (14:22) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to TB 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:08) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-B.Reedy pushed ob at TB 24 for 10 yards (19-R.Shepard). PENALTY on CAR-57-A.Gachkar, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 24.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 14 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 76%

    (2:40) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle [95-Ch.Johnson].