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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 91

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CAR 44, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model