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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 42

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:51) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to CAR 2, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-12-C.Godwin.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.46 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP