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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:53) (Field Goal formation) 7-P.Murray 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model