Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(12:28) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-52-J.Norris.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.90 EP
57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model