Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 93

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to TB 38, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-B.Reedy to CAR 45 for 17 yards (57-A.Gachkar). Penalty on TB-25-P.Barber, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on TB-12-C.Godwin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 39.

The Three Options

GO -3.71 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.77 EP
71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model