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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to CAR 17, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-K.Clay to CAR 18 for 1 yard (52-C.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.41 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model