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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
40.3%
BUF
59.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF on 7 more days rest than TB
  • BUF offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 21
–
BUF 24
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

TB

Josh Robinson S Out Concussion
Ryan Russell DE Out Shoulder
Kwon Alexander LB Questionable Hamstring
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Knee
Lavonte David LB Questionable Ankle
Noah Spence DE Questionable Shoulder
Keith Tandy S Questionable Hip
T.J. Ward S Questionable Hip
Jameis Winston QB Questionable right Shoulder
Adarius Taylor LB Questionable Hamstring

BUF

Charles Clay TE Out Knee
Ramon Humber LB Out Thumb
E.J. Gaines CB Questionable Groin
Leonard Johnson CB Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 27
–
BUF 30

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:49 FG TB (9:49) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – BUF 0
  • Q1 05:49 FG BUF (5:49) 4-S.Hauschka 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. TB 3 – BUF 3
  • Q1 00:25 FG TB (:25) 7-P.Murray 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 6 – BUF 3
  • Q2 09:26 TD BUF (9:26) 25-L.McCoy left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – BUF 9
  • Q3 11:43 TD BUF (11:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 82-L.Thomas for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline, 4 yds. into end zone. TB 6 – BUF 16
  • Q3 07:17 TD TB (7:17) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 80-O.Howard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 4. TB 12 – BUF 17
  • Q4 13:36 FG BUF (13:36) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. TB 13 – BUF 20
  • Q4 10:16 TD TB (10:16) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 80-O.Howard for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. Caught along sideline at goal line. TB 19 – BUF 20
  • Q4 03:20 TD TB (3:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline, 5 yds. into end zone. TB 26 – BUF 20
  • Q4 02:32 TD BUF (2:32) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – BUF 26
  • Q4 00:18 FG BUF (:18) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. TB 27 – BUF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 18 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 69%

    (9:49) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (5:49) 4-S.Hauschka 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (:25) 7-P.Murray 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%

    (4:12) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 57%

    (1:51) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:52) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to TB 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 48%

    (3:05) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%

    (13:36) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 95%

    (:18) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.