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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 7-P.Murray 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model