Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

(:52) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to TB 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.68 EP
61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model