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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP