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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:25) 7-P.Murray 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 7, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP