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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 12

Buffalo Bills 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(:18) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.05 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model