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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model