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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 14.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

MIA
16.9%
ATL
83.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.280 vs Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.156 EPA/dropback
  • ATL offense: +0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ATL on 7 more days rest than MIA
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 18
–
ATL 30
Projected margin: ATL by 12 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

MIA

DeVante Parker WR Doubtful Ankle
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Shoulder
Byron Maxwell CB Questionable Foot

ATL

Mohamed Sanu WR Out Hamstring
Courtney Upshaw DE Out Ankle
Jermaine Grace LB Out Hamstring
Matt Bryant K Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
ATL 17

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:48 FG ATL (9:48) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. MIA 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 02:00 TD ATL (2:00) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 17-M.Hall for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – ATL 9
  • Q2 05:35 TD ATL (5:35) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIA 0 – ATL 16
  • Q3 06:25 TD MIA (6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 10-K.Stills for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – ATL 17
  • Q3 01:38 TD MIA (1:38) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 14-J.Landry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – ATL 17
  • Q4 08:39 FG MIA (8:39) 1-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 17 – ATL 17
  • Q4 02:35 FG MIA (2:35) 1-C.Parkey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 20 – ATL 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 74%

    (9:48) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 36%

    (6:48) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to ATL 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 51%

    (13:28) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to MIA 44, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 58%

    (7:57) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 14-J.Landry (92-D.Poe).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 93%

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 26-D.Williams to ATL 14 for 3 yards (37-R.Allen).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (4:14) 5-M.Bosher punts 26 yards to MIA 49, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-42-D.Riley.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 19 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 51%

    (11:51) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher Aborted. 47-J.Harris FUMBLES at 50, recovered by ATL-5-M.Bosher at ATL 48. 5-M.Bosher to MIA 48 for 4 yards (31-M.Thomas). Snap hit the up back, 20-Neasman.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 45%

    (10:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 14-J.Landry to ATL 35 for 9 yards (37-R.Allen).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 76%

    (8:39) 1-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:11) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 34 for 8 yards (36-K.Ishmael).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (2:35) 1-C.Parkey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.