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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 81

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to MIA 44, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model