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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 14 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 1-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model