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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to ATL 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.78 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model