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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 0 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(13:28) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP