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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 5-M.Bosher punts 26 yards to MIA 49, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-42-D.Riley.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.24 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP