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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 20

Miami Dolphins 17 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 1-C.Parkey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.99 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model