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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SF
41.0%
IND
59.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.148 vs Brian Hoyer (SF) -0.067 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 21
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

SF

Adrian Colbert S Out Hamstring
Reuben Foster LB Out Ankle
Eric Reid S Out Knee
Dekoda Watson LB Out Groin
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Concussion

IND

Jack Doyle TE Out Concussion
Nate Hairston CB Out Quadricep
Andrew Luck QB Out right Shoulder
Matt Jones RB Doubtful Knee
Rashaan Melvin CB Questionable Hamstring
Chester Rogers WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 23
–
IND 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:15 FG IND (9:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. SF 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 02:41 FG SF (2:41) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – IND 3
  • Q2 01:03 FG IND (1:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. SF 3 – IND 6
  • Q2 00:07 FG SF (:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – IND 6
  • Q3 07:51 FG IND (7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. SF 6 – IND 9
  • Q3 03:26 TD IND (3:26) (Run formation) 25-M.Mack right tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – IND 15
  • Q4 13:44 FG SF (13:44) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 9 – IND 16
  • Q4 10:01 TD IND (10:01) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – IND 22
  • Q4 08:04 TD SF (8:04) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 15 – IND 23
  • Q4 00:24 TD SF (:24) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 22 – IND 23
  • Q5 01:43 FG IND (1:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. SF 23 – IND 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 19 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 70%

    (9:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (2:41) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:56) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to SF 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:18) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to IND 40, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-Q.Bray to IND 34 for -6 yards. Lateral to 81-K.Hogan to IND 27 for -7 yards (47-E.Lee). FUMBLES (47-E.Lee), and recovers at IND 25. 81-K.Hogan to IND 26 for 1 yard (50-B.Coyle).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:44) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to SF 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-T.Taylor to SF 27 for 9 yards (50-A.Walker). PENALTY on SF-30-A.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 18.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:08) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to IND 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 27%

    (7:59) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to SF 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-41-M.Farley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:10) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to IND 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-Q.Bray to IND 23 for 13 yards (54-R.Armstrong).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (1:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:09) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to 50, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds. SF-30-A.Jackson was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 18 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 91%

    (7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 89%

    (13:44) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:37) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to SF 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 56%

    (2:47) (Run formation) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle to IND 21 for 19 yards (21-V.Davis).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (:24) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.