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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 90

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(11:08) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to IND 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model