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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.49 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 10, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP