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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:59) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to SF 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-41-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model